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Comments from a blog member - I would like to hear my constituency's opinion on this:


One of the banks that I have been following in the recent months is ICICI bank. The stock peaked around $71 on Jan 10th and is down to around $36 of late. From what I can observe, Indian market took off just around the time MER was making margin calls on BSC (last July-August) mostly due to foreign money flows. (Smart money got in early and setup rising expectations). Of late ICICI has revealed derivative losses and may be there is more to come. And this has shown up in the near 50% drop in the stock over a 10 week period. (By the time CNBC started touting "Emerging market safe havens" smart money was already getting out). Lot of common people in India are getting hurt in the process and are learning a hard lesson. On the ground in Indian real estate is beyond bubble territory, people buying multiple homes as investment at the height of the bubble, but there are signs of sentiment turning negative. For the service industry the Rupee appreciation along with US downturn is becoming a serious problem. Although service export industry is a net positive, it can only employ a very small slice of the population. Despite all this India may not be as dependent on exports as China and has a reasonably mature/strong domestic market.