Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:84626 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:79093 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:78938 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:83426 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:79991 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:82298 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:53273 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:81302 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:81303 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:81110 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:86965 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:84982 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Recent news bytes:

  • Bloomberg: Treasuries rose and three-month bill rates plunged to to 0.56%, the lowest level in almost 50 years on speculation credit market losses will widen (e.g. ex-LTCM Meriwether's fund facing losses, Thornburg Mortgage Inc. may go bankrupt, Merrill suing monoliner over recalled $3.1bn CDO guarantee)
  • RGE Montitor: Flight to quality trades:
    - The rate on the three-month Treasury bill, viewed by investors as a haven in times of trouble, dropped 32 basis points to 0.56% on Feb 19;
    - Capital preservation trade: buy Treasuries sell stocks;
    - TED spreads (= LIBOR- T-Bill) spiking upwards in all markets
    - 2-year swap spreads widening
  • BNP: Signs of interbank lending stress and liquidity hoarding eased after Fed actions on March 16/17; spreads on the rise again in US, UK and Euro market. Interbank spread decomposition shows that crunch is driven by upward trending credit premium since 2008 instead of liquidity premium as was the case in H2 2007. Fed interventions ultimately can address liquidity, not credit concerns.
  • Fed, BoE, ECB intervening in their respective markets
  • Krugman: Flight to quality and cash hoarding lead to Treasury yields close to zero--> if there is no compensation for holding Treasury paper, investors prefer to hold cash--> normal monetary policy channel via buying and selling of Treasuries breaks down (i.e. liquidity trap). He also points out that TED spreads - between 3-month Libor and 3-month treasuries - are now back to where it was, saying that the results of the rate cut and the new liquidity measures must be disappointing to the Fed.
  •  Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism backs up my assertion that all attention has focused so far on US banks, but European banks are in at least as much trouble, citing research that some European banks have written off senior and mezzanine tranches of CDOs to a large extent, while others have not at all, quoting CreditSights, whose model indicates a shortfall in write-downs of over $3bn for Barclays, RBS and SocGen, and of over $6bn for UBS .

 

 Lehman has been in my bearish sites, but until now I have not put the microscope on them. That will change very soon. I am also intensifying my research on Morgan Stanley since I feel they carry the most credit risk, leverage and level 3 asset concentrations (bullsh1t risk) on the street. I will also start covering the borrow short buy long funds that have been going bust lately like TMA and Carlyle Capital which are still over $10 per share. I had a short position on KFN, which I unfortunately closed out a while back. I am looking into to going back in, although to do so would be a bet that they will be wiped out of existence since their share price has fallen so much thus far. They have the exact same problem Carlyle Capital has (had?).

I am very close to spreading out to the European and Asian banks. I know they are in serious trouble, it is just that I have but so much to dedicate in analytical resources and time. I hate running in blind. Anyone who has experise in any of these areas (or any other areas of interest), feel free to start a post, thread or user group - or contact me to share info and thoughts.

The Naked Capitalism Blog alleges the collateral pledged by prime brokers to the Fed via commercial banks will be valued by the commercial banks. Since they often hold the same collateral, this facility may induce them not to write down their own assets and put on excessive valuations. One way to counter this is to try to identify the classes of assets and put our own gross marks on them. This is what I did with GGP and the monolines. It may not be the most accurate in some cases. GGP is quite accurate in my opinion due to ample supporting data and proven robust modeling, the monolines were educated guesses just like everyone else's opinion on valuation. What makes the monoline situation believable is that you can be off by a whopping 25% and still see how they are in trouble because the losses x leverage x macro trend is not very ambiguous.

...and for those who haven't read the popular Money Trap article, click here