Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:87219 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:81136 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:80979 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:85451 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:81950 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:84137 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:55200 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:83394 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:83135 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:83027 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:89287 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:86999 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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You know they say, a picture is worth a thousand words...

image002.png

  The skinny black line represents the value (spread between price and yield, unadjusted for inflation) in investing in REITS over the last 33 some odd years. As you can see, the spread between price and yield went negative about the beginning of '06, right about the time that asking commercial rents dipped below existing commercial rents that had just shot through the membrane of a bubble. Is it a coincidence? I don't believe in coincidences! The last 24 months has seen REITs the most expensive they have been in over 30 years!

  That first bright yellow line you see are the implied cap rates of these gems. Too close to, if not below, the risk free rate. These guys are far from risk free. Looking at the first chart, try to figure out the risk premia recieved over treasuries historically. We are far from that.

Now, the second yellow line is what I see as either distressed sales or defaults coming up this fiscal year. 

    VNO
Boston Properties 
Equity Residential
Simon Property
General Growth Properties 
Alexander’s Inc
Equity Lifestyle Property
Maguire Properties
Parkway Properties  
                     Avg.
Cap Rate (FFO / Fixed Assets) adj. for dep.
  5.3%   5.5%   4.1%   5.7%   3.4%   3.6%   4.9%   0.4%   4.0% 4.1%

                                     
Debt position                                      
2007   0%   0%   0%   5%   4%   0%   2%   0%   0% 1.2%
2008-2009   9%   15%   15%   15%   25%   8%   18%   14%   11% 14.3%
2010-2012   50%   30%   36%   46%   58%   26%   24%   9%   49% 36.5%
2012 -and beyond   40%   56%   49%   34%   13%   67%   58%   77%   40% 48.0%
                                       
Total debt/ Investment in real estate adj. for dep.   67.4%   53.6%   51.9%   70.5%   90.4%   134.9%   87.2%   92.1%   59.2% 78.6%
Total debt / Shareholders  Equity   163.1%   127.1%   175.4%   374.1%   1594.3%   1030.7%   2339.1%   1399.1%   178.1% 820.1%
                                       
Net debt/ Investment in real estate   63.0%   38.9%   51.6%   68.5%   90.2%   67.4%   86.9%   88.9%   58.4% 68.2%
Net debt / Shareholders  Equity   152.3%   92.2%   174.5%   363.2%   1591.1%   514.8%   2331.0%   1350.3%   175.9% 749.5%

                                     
52 Week High   136.6   133.0   56.4   124.0                            67.4                             471.0                            59.7                            43.2                            57.9  
52 Week low   77.4   79.9      31.1   74.8                            31.0                             308.3                            39.7                            22.0                            31.0  
 - Price as % of 52 week high   62%   64%   65%   67%   52%   73%   76%   56%   61%  

                                     
Price Performance (Absolute)                                      
  1 months   11%   7%   11%   14%   4%   -1%   9%   -11%   10% 6.0%
  3 months   -11%   -7%   -1%   -4%   -22%   -8%   -2%   -14%   -12% -8.8%
12 months   -25%   -24%   -30%   -17%   -35%   -22%   -22%   -42%   -37% -28.3%
                                       
Price Performance (Relative to SPX)                                      
  1 months   17%   13%   17%   20%   10%   5%   15%   -4%   16%  
  3 months   -2%   2%   8%   5%   -14%   1%   7%   -5%   -4%  
12 months   -18%   -17%   -23%   -10%   -28%   -14%   -15%   -35%   -29%  
                                     

 
 

 

 It appears as if someone was studying thier charts (fundamental, not technical) becaue the AAA spreads are going through the roof!

The A, BBB, and BIG spreads are even uglier, much uglier. So where does that leave BSC, MS, AGO, MBI, and ABK as well as all of those other CMBS structured product mavens (LEH has been giving commercial loans up tll last quarter or so)? I'll let you come to your own conclusions.