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GGP sensitivity analysis –

We have conducted a sensitivity analysis for GGP’s re-financing requirement in 2008 and 2009 based on three parameters – LTV, NOI growth and interest rates. The following is a ‘stress test’ to ascertain any additional financing requirements for GGP under three scenarios:

 

1) LTV vs. NOI (assuming interest rate of 6.14%)

 

Additional refinancing required -2008

 

Additional refinancing required -2009



NOI growth

 



NOI growth



-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

 



-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

LTV

50%

$2,769

$2,746

$2,723

 

LTV

50%

$2,792

$2,742

$2,691

55%

$2,540

$2,514

$2,489

 

55%

$2,546

$2,491

$2,435

60%

$2,310

$2,282

$2,255

 

60%

$2,300

$2,240

$2,179

 

2) Interest rate vs. NOI (assuming LTV of 50%)

 

Additional refinancing required -2008

 

Additional refinancing required -2009



NOI growth

 



NOI growth



-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

 



-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

Interest rate

6.1%

$2,769

$2,746

$2,723

 

Interest rate

6.1%

$2,792

$2,742

$2,691

6.5%

$2,760

$2,737

$2,714

 

6.5%

$2,779

$2,729

$2,678

7.0%

$2,748

$2,725

$2,702

 

7.0%

$2,761

$2,711

$2,660

 

3) Interest rate vs. LTV (assuming NOI growth of -1%)

 

Additional refinancing required -2008

 

Additional refinancing required -2009



LTV

 



LTV



50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

 



50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

Interest rate

6.1%

$2,769

$2,540

$2,310

 

Interest rate

6.1%

$2,792

$2,546

$2,300

6.5%

$2,760

$2,531

$2,302

 

6.5%

$2,779

$2,533

$2,287

7.0%

$2,748

$2,519

$2,290

 

7.0%

$2,761

$2,515

$2,269

 

4) Interest expense in 2008 and 2009 with change in interest rates.

 

Interest expense



Interest rate



6.1%

6.5%

7.0%

2008

$1,526

$1,535

$1,547

2009

$1,628

$1,651

$1,681