Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:84581 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:79050 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:78902 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:83382 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:79949 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:82259 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:53236 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:81258 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:81269 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:81074 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:86922 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:84938 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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As I have stated throughout all of last year, the macro, fundamental and political headwinds facing banks make them good shorts and risky investments. They faced a good run in this recent bear market rally, but the spirits have cursed them for the medium term. In addition, these guys act as if they have never heard of PR and strategy, ex. this bonus thing.

Recap in the news:

These fees are coming when banks are not really making the money that it seems like they are making. The big profits stem from the fact that the government gave the "OK" to lie about the credit losses on the rotten assets. These profits are fake if netted out against credit and asset losses. Hence, the bonuses are fake too. If the bonuses get paid out against the backdrop of increasing credit losses and still deflating asset values held with significant leverage on the balance sheet, you would have let the last horse out of the barn.

These proposed fees will just make things worse for the banks. I see bonuses being reduced simply by the mere fact that they are given out as stock at the top of a mini-bank bubble!!!

I seem to have been one of the very few was bearish on Goldman and Morgan Stanley in early 2008 (see links at the bottom of this post as well as Get Your Federally Insured Hedge Fund Here, Twice the Price Sale Going on Now!  and It appears as if the patina on Goldman's Stock is fading...  and The Riskiest Bank on the Street).

 As illustrated to subscribers in the  Morgan Stanley Forensic Outlook: Q1 2010 Morgan Stanley Forensic Outlook: Q1 2010 2010-01-05 04:20:36 504.53 Kb, the bulk of the valuation increase for the big investment banks stems from the peer group bear rally premium of the last 9 months. If, or more accurately, when that premium dissipates, the whole sector will drop in fundamental value. I don't believe the banks are worth what they are trading at now, but comps are comps. Let's take a look at the comp trend.

ibank_comps_trend.png

As you can see, thanks to the bear market rally, the enire I bank peer group has enjoyed a big bump in valuation - one that I believe will prove to be transient, to say the least.

bank_comps_bvps.png

If I am right, then these I bank stocks will collapse for the value drivers just aren't there to drive the valuation. Nearly all business units are trending down save a bump or two, FICC and trading arbitrage can't last forever (some analysts say the party is over already), and eventually the credit losses and asset devaluations on the balance sheet will come a knockin', despite the "get 4 quarters' worth of free mark to market lies" from the powers that be. Residential real estate is resuming its downtrend (see If Anybody Bothered to Take a Close Look at the Latest Housing Numbers...) as credit loses resume their uptrend (seeThe Truth! The Truth? Banker's Can't Handle the Truth!!! andResidential Lending Credit Losses Worsen as Unstainable Government Support Proves... Unsustainable).

Check out Goldman Sachs today, and for the last 30 days.

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