Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:82051 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:77701 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:77271 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:82017 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:78606 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:80905 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:47784 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:79608 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:79138 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:79683 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:84640 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:81608 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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BoomBustBlogger NDbadger commented in the "It was bound to happen. Reggie Middleton vs Ackman vs Hovde on GGP!" thread:

I didn't find Hovde's analysis compelling. Would have liked Ackman to have spent more time on the dilution issue, as NOI will be shared by more shareholders. Also looks like he is using a post bankruptcy cap rate, which is aggressive, at least for now. That said, so far he is doing a masterful job navagating the company through bankruptcy. If he succeeds, this will truly be one of the great investment stories of our time.

I feel that the term "aggressive" is putting it lightly. Barring insider information or a connection with the judge (which he very well may have), no one really knows how GGP will emerge post bankruptcy, hence attempting to pro-forma using assumptions based on more assumptions of cap rate post emergence is literally a financial version of fantasy football.

The valuation of a real property portfolio using common equity share comps is stretching it as well, particularly when comparing one of the weakest companies in the business (currently in bankruptcy) with one of the strongest companies in the business. There really is no comparison without a significant discount to GGP, and even then you are comparing apples with oranges.

The dilution issue is pretty big (over 100% dilution), but not as big as the macro assumptions used to power Ackman's analysis, which are also very aggressive and cherry picked from anecdotal points that essentially fail to form a trend that actually supports his thesis. If anything, the trend disputes his thesis!

Hovde had several technical valuation issues in his presentation, which Ackman duly noted, but the gist of his message was essentially unanswered - most likely because it couldn't be.

I think many investors are getting confused by the fact that GGP's share prices has risen so much, and contributing that to the premise of Ackman being correct on the valuation vs his being able to pull off a profitable trade by riding an aggressive rally that has thrown the fundamentals out of the window. We have just underwent the most aggressive rally in the history of the market (save the great depression, and we all know how that rally turned out) in which the weakest companies rallied the most while the strongest prospects barely moved. Without such a rally, does anyone truly believe that GGP's stock would be worth $25 to $40? or even $12 while still in bankruptcy? GGP's management has destroyed immense amount of shareholder value and have held the dividend from $60 all the way down into bankruptcy, apparently failing to acknowledge their problems until well after it was too late.

Reference "Most Profitable CEOs Get Smallest Gains in Biggest Stock Rally Since 1930" from Bloomberg:

Money managers ignored profitability to snap up stocks that dropped the most in the credit crisis, leaving opportunities for value investors in 2010, say Raiffeisen Capital Management and Credit Andorra. They’re buying this year’s laggards, betting companies with the highest returns on shareholders’ capital will be rewarded as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates and the government removes stimulus.

“The best rally in our lifetime has left even more opportunities,” said Vienna-based Herbert Perus, head of global equities at Raiffeisen, whose team helps manage $36 billion and has bought J&J shares. “Well-managed companies with extremely good balance sheets were left behind.”

Creating Value

Fewer than 215 companies in the S&P 500 created value in 2009 as the U.S. economy experienced the worst contraction since the Great Depression, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on consulting firm Stern Stewart & Co.’s EVA model. Their so-called return on invested capital exceeded the cost of funding their operations, the economic value added data show.