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Posting will be light for the next 24 hours, due to engagements that will pull me away from a secure computing environment. In the meantime I will post a list of companies that we have looked at in the REIT space. I will try to get the first REIT analysis out by the end of the week to subscirbers, followed by another one by the end of next week. These are very laborious, consuming significant man hours. I have amassed the GGP property analysis as a downloadable pdf (excluding the property level valuations, which are too strenuous on my server at over a gigabyte in size) for anyone who wants to see how I go about analyzing the REITs - one property at a time, then rolling the results into an entity level model. You will have to zoom in and out to make the text legible - GGP advanced mini-sample GGP advanced mini-sample 2008-01-08 12:28:44 877.07 Kb

 Weingarten Realty Investors (WRI US Equity) 

Key Observations

·         The REIT primarily owns shopping and industrial centers. The stock has declined about 11% over the past one month and is down about 2% over the past one year. The current price as % of its 52 week high is 79.2%.

·         The stock is trading at cap rate (TTM NOI/ EV) of 7.7% and EV/TTM EBITDA of 13.3x.

·         The operational performance of the REIT has been significantly affected by downturn especially in retail segment. The rental income declined 9.6% (y-o-y) in 3Q09 and the NOI declined 10.6% (y-o-y). On TTM basis, rental income declined 3.8% (y-o-y) and NOI declined 7.7% (y-o-y). The depressed operational performance resulted in a quarterly dividend cut in 2Q09 from $0.525 to $0.25 per share

·         The LTV ratio (Debt to gross real estate investment) as of Sept, 2008 was 56.1%

·         We also did a preliminary cash flow analysis . Based on the scheduled maturities in 2009 and 2010 and the available cash, the Company will be able to meet debt obligations and the current cash distribution needs (if the operating cash flows remain stable).

 

Cash flow analysis (fig in $' 000)

1H08

2H08

1H09

2H09E

1H10E

2H10E

Cash flow from operation

         

 

Net income

113,810

37,871

92,996

92,996

92,996

92,996

Dep & Amortization

83,520

74,374

77,512

77,512

77,512

77,512

Amortization of deferred financing costs

6,516

5,208

7,074

6,266

6,183

6,508

Impairment loss

 

52,539

731

   

 

Other

-104,891

-48,797

-44,276

-44,276

-44,276

-44,276

Cash Flows from Operations

98,955

121,195

134,037

132,498

132,415

132,740

 

         

 

 

         

 

Investment in property

-161,100

-133,786

-62,901

0

0

0

Proceeds from sale and disposition of property,

174,986

90,435

105,331

0

0

0

Other

-57,420

-28,506

-3,939

0

0

0

Cash Flows from Investing activities

-43,534

-71,857

38,491

0

0

0

 

         

 

Common and preferred dividends paid

-107,075

-106,494

-92,249

-92,249

-92,249

-92,249

Debt repayment

-179,108

-217,794

-618,142

-13986

-57967

-57,967

Other

205,412

293,469

573,287

   

 

Cash Flows from financing activities

-80,771

-30,819

-137,104

-106,235

-150,216

-150,216

 

         

 

Cash and cash equivalents at the end

40,427

58,946

94,370

120,633

102,832

85,355

  ·         Looking at the property portfolio, the Company did acquire substantial portion of properties during 2004-2008.

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SLG US Equity SL GREEN REALTY
WRI US Equity WEINGARTEN RLTY
CPT US Equity CAMDEN PROP TR
TCO US Equity TAUBMAN CENTERS
ELS US Equity EQUITY LIFESTYLE
EQY US Equity EQUITY ONE INC
PPS US Equity POST PROPERTIES
AVB US Equity AVALONBAY COMMUN
HPT US Equity HOSPITALITY PROP
BRE US Equity BRE PROPERTIES
HME US Equity HOME PROPERTIES
SSS US Equity SOVRAN SELF STOR
AKR US Equity ACADIA REALTY
MAC US Equity MACERICH CO
ALX US Equity ALEXANDER'S INC
HCP US Equity HCP INC
BXP US Equity BOSTON PROPERTIE
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FRT US Equity FED REALTY INVS
DLR US Equity DIGITAL REALTY
NHP US Equity NATIONWIDE HLTH
LRY US Equity LIBERTY PROP
REG US Equity REGENCY CENTERS
CLI US Equity MACK-CALI REALTY
O US Equity REALTY INCOME
ARE US Equity ALEXANDRIA REAL
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OFC US Equity CORP OFFICE PROP
HIW US Equity HIGHWOODS PROP
NNN US Equity NATIONAL RETAIL
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SKT US Equity TANGER FACTORY
ACC US Equity AMERICAN CAMPUS
OHI US Equity OMEGA HEALTHCARE
HR US Equity HEALTHCARE RLTY
MAA US Equity MID-AMERICA APAR
LHO US Equity LASALLE HOTEL PR
EPR US Equity ENTERTAINMENT PR
KRC US Equity KILROY REALTY
PCH US Equity POTLATCH CORP
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DFT US Equity DUPONT FABROS TE
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