Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:84609 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:79080 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:78926 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:83413 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:79977 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:82284 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:53258 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:81290 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:81291 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:81100 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:86950 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:84968 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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I read the Real Deal magazine, a NYC real estate rag. Although they have never quoted me or even bothered to feature my rather dashing picture in their publication, a reporter or two does keep in touch to get my opinion on things valuation related. This is some of their latest stuff:

Manhattan residential market reports bring good news, experts cautiously optimistic
Third-quarter Manhattan market reports released by the city's residential brokerages this week paint a grim picture compared to the same period last year, but show a marked improvement from earlier this year. "For New York, the worst is over," said Dottie Herman, president and CEO of the city's largest residential brokerage, Prudential Douglas Elliman. Still, experts caution that while the pace of decline is slowing, recovery is not yet imminent. "I'm very pleased with what we saw this summer and it’s a step in the right direction, but I still think we have a ways to go," said real estate appraiser Jonathan Miller, the CEO of Miller Samuel, who prepared Elliman's report.   

Well, I wouldn't stake my future on those prices skyrocketing any time soon. To begin with, there is a market difference between prices improving verses prices getting worse at a slower pace. Words, after all, do have meanings, don't they? Below is the Case Shiller seasonally adjusted index for Condos, to put things into perspective.

 cscondo_9-09.png

 

 As you can see, it does not appear that the index believes NYC prices are going anywhere significant. The macro scene of unsustainable and government suppressed mortgage rate levels, rampant unemployment expected to increase for at least another year, and the potential end to government housing subsidies really don't seem to bode well for prices either. Oh well, what the hell do I know?

cscondo_9-09_2.png

 

When I stroll around NYC (with unemployment pushing 10% and not looking much better anytime soon), I see the recipe for lower prices. For those who are not regulars to my site and particularly those who do not know the NYC real estate market well, I strongly recommend you read the following two posts thoroughly in order to get a visual account of what is actually going on and why I am sure these banks are still hiding TREMENDOUS losses: "Who are ya gonna believe, the pundits or your lying eyes?" (for pictures) and "Who are you going to believe, the pundits or your lying eyes, part 2" (for numbers and a very shaky video), in order, of course. Hey, why believe your own eyes. I started getting bearish on NYC real estate in 2004, and liquidated my own inventory in 2005. The market collapse in 2006 (actually, it started getting difficult to sell in 2005 but brokers will never admit that. I started placing short positions against the homebuilders in the summer of 2007, see:

  1. Voodoo, Zombies, Lennar’s Off Balance Sheet Accounting and Other Things of Mystery & Myth 
  2. Lennar Insolvent: Enron redux??? 
  3. Lennar, Voodoo & the Year of the Living Dead! 
  4. Now, a "Realistic" View of Lennar's Solvency 
  5. Bubble, Banks and Builders 
  6. Even as the corporate management, the treasury secretary, the Fed Chairman and the sell side called a bottom in 2007, 2008, and even now in 2009 (sound familiar) - see Bubbles, Bank, & Builders - Pt IV: I can't believe this guy and Again, I say, Credibility is the key, Mr. Hovnanian.
BTW, I was quite serious about Paulson, Bernanke and their bottom(s), see:
  1.  
    1. I've always said that the Bernanke and Paulson lack credibility, accuracy, and quite possibly veraci
    2. Is Paulson to be trusted, or is this Bush Administration Shock and Awe, 2.0?
    3. Reggie Middleton says, "Don't believe Paulson": S&L 2.0 - bank failure redux

I also sounded the alarm on commercial real estate in 2007 went short the sector in November of that same year. One REIT in particular, GGP, was quite feisty in trying to besmirch me in their conference calls and in press releases sent out at 9 pm on a Saturday evening. They called my analysis trash. Well, sticks and stones may break my bones, but leveraged caused them to file bankruptcy. As it appears, I was right: see GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house.

Don't get me wrong. I am far from a permabear. As a matter of fact, I rode the real estate market up on a highly leveraged basis from 2000 to 2005, but enough is enough and math is still math. That's how I knew how to get out. The way I saw things, 2 + 2 does not equal 49!!! Now, I am being told that there are new rules to the game and the old fundamentals don't apply, so we should all just ride the momentum wave. Right, like they didn't apply in 2000, or 2006, 2007? 2008? Here we are in 2009, and nearly all of the problems extant in 2008 are here with us in 2009, except for a stock market that has rocketed 60% or so. Oh well, back to the Real Deal...

Case-Shiller: NY home prices improving
New York metropolitan area home prices have improved, but still haven't seen the solid increases of some other markets around the country, according to S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index July data released this week. Home sale prices within a 50-mile radius of New York City declined at a slower pace than previous months, according to the index, which gauges values in 20 major U.S. cities. New York-area prices fell 10.3 percent in July from the same month last year, compared to a year-over-year drop of 11.9 percent in June, and 12.2 percent in May. Since the data does not include condo or co-op units, the report primarily reflects home prices in the outer boroughs, Connecticut, New Jersey and Westchester County. New York was one of 13 metropolitan areas showing at least three straight months of price gains, the data shows. New York-area prices inched up 0.8 percent between June and July, and 0.7 percent between May and June after having increased slightly between April and May. Before that, prices had been falling, including a record decline of 2.5 percent between February and March. 

Again, let's go back to the tape for a blow by blow...

cshome_0-09.png

cshome_9-09_blown_up.png