Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:87101 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:81043 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:80879 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:85352 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:81859 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:84042 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:55091 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:83288 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:83035 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:82931 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:89169 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:86905 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Yes, I am still bearish on the market. I try, and I try, but I still cannot find the fundamentals (or even the forward looking promise of the fundamentals) to justify the markets run up. What does that mean? Well, to me, it means the market will probably have to come down again, or earnings will have to skyrocket upwards. Since practically all earnings "beats" were off of dwindling revenues and were achieved through multiple lowered analyst expectations coupled with extensive cost cutting, this upcoming earnings season will not feature the same catalysts.

In the meantime, I have missed out on, and have disgorged some profits during, this historic bull run. It has been a traders market, not a stock pickers market - and I am a stock picker not a trader. I have instituted a market neutral strategy that basically allows me to hover while waiting for the next big catalyst. Since it is neutral, I will benefit from the catalyst pushing up or down. I think it will be down, but I have to hedge since I have admittedly underestimated the extent of this 5 month rally.

One area where I am very good at picking stocks, the financials, actually features an advocate that can act as a catalyst. While the accounting boards and the government collude in assisting the banks to hide losses, in an attempt to conceal failure until hopefully earnings pull them out of the hole, the FDIC comes in and actually closes failed banks and sells them off. I am looking at the pattern of this behavior and plan on using it to anticipate future bank closings, of which I anticipate there will be many more.

So what does a bank look like that is about to be closed by the FDIC? Well, here's a snapshot of recent failings of banks with over $1 billion in assets:

 

Adjusted leverage

Texas ratio

Cushion (Reserve less NPA) as % of common equity

Recently failed banks

 

 

 

Alliance Bancshares California

129.2x

419%

-1125%

Beverly Hills Bancorp Inc.

10.2x

45%

-28%

BankUnited Financial Corporation

26.2x

130%

-139%

Colonial BancGroup, Inc.

29.6x

84%

-50%

Guaranty Bancorp

12.7x

44%

-29%

Temecula Valley Bancorp Inc.

143.1x

256%

-1092%

Vineyard National Bancorp

negative equity

874%

negative equity

 

 

 

 

Average

58.5x

265%

-410%

Maximum

143.1x

874%

-28%

Minimum

10.2x

44%

-1125%

  As you can see, the numbers are all of over the place, but there are a few common denominators which I will share with subscribers in the next major research release, as well as the list of banks that I feel are likely to be deemed a failure by one of our only true government advocates in realistic bank analysis, the FDIC.

Since I feel "Banks are actually worse off now than they were before" and the original Doo Doo 32 list was so prescient (many of the banks on the list no longer exist, or are trading in the single digits), I feel confident that the Doo Doo list - part two, will bear fruit. Don't get me wrong, I am far from a perma bear, but I really need the promise of earnings and value to justify going long, not just the fact that share prices have increased. For those that can remember, following momentum while blindly ignoring fundamentals was how everyone lost their shirt in the dot.com crash. Then again, that bubble was notorisouly hard to short as well.