Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:87156 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:81086 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:80925 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:85398 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:81900 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:84088 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:55145 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:83338 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:83083 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:82975 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:89223 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:86945 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Note: The Goldman Sachs direction neutral strategy empirical analysist is now available to Pro subscribers. Click pdf  Goldman Sachs Option Strategy Pro Analysis 2009-08-05 09:52:44 1.02 Mb to access or proceed to the downloads section.

We have started with analyzing market neutral option strategies during the bull run of 2Q09. Also we have started with analyzing most optimal OTM Strangle strategies for the S&P and the companies we have covered over the last year. Below is a list of 12 companies for the purpose of analysis based on following criteria.

Criteria 1 :

            a) More than 50% price change over the past one month / three month / six month and

            b) More than 5% deviation from consensus mean

or

Criteria 2 :

            b) More than 25% deviation from consensus mean

Based on the criterion above we have selected the list of 12 companies below. Before getting to the list, I want to make clear how absurd this rally has been. Notice the columns in the list and who has made the list... The worst performers with the worst prospects have been propelled the farthest, while the best performers with the brightest prospects have remained relatively static. I aim to mitigate the risk of prospecting for a correction with the direction neutral strategies described in my previous post.

Please keep in mind that the consensus estimates outlined here have been lowballed, and reduced significantly according to managment guidance. You all should know the Wall Street game by now. It goes a little something like this: "Company X's earnings fell 80%, with a 95% drop in revenues, as auditors doubt the ability to continue as a going cocern. Management hires prominent law firm Getcha, Gotcha, Wily and Lipton to advise on potenial bankruptcy filings, but stock pops and rallies in after hours trading on better than anticipated results!" This would be funny, except for the fact that even with significantly lowered guidance and consequent consensus estimates, companies are still missing, and missing by a lot. Notice how that does not stop them from rallying though. For those who subscribe to my research, you know what the real numbers should look like, without the politics, drama, conflicts of interest and bullshit that abounds!

Ticker

Forensic Research

Price

52 week high

% of 52 week high

52 week low

% of 52 week low

1 month return

3 month return

6 month return

1 year return

Upside (downside) from consensus mean

Mean

 Bullshit Factor Analysis

MAC

  pdf

20.0

69.1

29%

5.3

378%

17.9%

7.4%

48.5%

-62.1%

-7.1%

18.6

 Missed consensus, rallies 50%

STI 

 

19.9

64.0

31%

6.0

331%

23.2%

15.1%

99.4%

-53.6%

-11.2%

17.7

 Missed consensus, rallies 100%

JPM 

 

39.6

50.6

78%

15.0

265%

22.7%

10.6%

64.7%

-1.3%

8.8%

43.1

Beats consensus (w. tricks) rallies 65%

USG

 

14.8

35.0

42%

4.2

356%

50.3%

-11.0%

133.1%

-44.2%

-34.7%

9.7

Totally misses consensus, rallies 133%

SFD 

 

13.1

26.7

49%

5.4

243%

-4.2%

33.0%

15.2%

-41.1%

-16.2%

11.0

 Misses consensus, up 33% last quarter

AXP 

 

28.7

41.8

69%

9.7

295%

28.6%

5.0%

75.1%

-22.3%

-8.8%

26.1

 Misses consensus, nearly doubles

HOT

 

24.9

42.3

59%

9.0

277%

19.0%

19.7%

68.7%

-28.7%

-5.7%

23.5

 Misses consensus, up nearly 70%

GS 

 

164.1

183.2

90%

47.4

346%

14.4%

22.3%

86.5%

-7.7%

6.5%

174.8

Barely beats, takes 2x the risk, while on welfare, nobody notices?

FRO

 

24.1

61.0

40%

15.8

153%

3.3%

-7.0%

-13.8%

-57.1%

-28.6%

17.2

 big miss

LRN

 

18.7

29.5

63%

12.0

156%

-4.8%

12.0%

16.7%

-25.8%

34.5%

25.1

 Biggest beat here, best prospects, stock barely moves

BBV

 

16.8

18.2

92%

5.6

301%

37.7%

48.1%

81.6%

-3.0%

-12.1%

14.8

 miss but almost doubles

CAT

 

45.1

72.1

63%

21.7

208%

42.2%

17.3%

47.5%

-33.1%

-13.4%

39.1

 miss, up 50%

We target to complete the strategy analysis of these companies by the end of the week based upon the relevant free and proprietary BoomBustBlog Subscriber research below. The Goldman Sachs direction neutral strategy empirical analysist is now available to Pro subscribers. Click pdf  Goldman Sachs Option Strategy Pro Analysis 2009-08-05 09:52:44 1.02 Mb to access or proceed to the downloads section.

Below is a complete listing of the fundamental research that we are using to compile the direction neutral strategy analysis for the tickers listed above. Some of it is free for non-subscribers. I would recommend that pro subscribers reread the documents to brush up on my take on the companies listed herein.

GS 

gs_stress_test_cover.jpg
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Goldman Sachs Stress Test Retail Goldman Sachs Stress Test Retail 2009-04-20 10:08:06 720.25 Kb - 17 pages

Goldman Sachs Stress Test Professional Goldman Sachs Stress Test Professional 2009-04-20 10:06:45 4.04 Mb - 131 pages

Free research and opinion

§  As Reality hits, the Masters of the Universe are starting to look like regular bank employees


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Goldman Sachs - strategic investment and public offering Goldman Sachs - strategic investment and public offering 2008-09-26 02:29:15 895.36 Kb 

Goldman Sachs Report June 21, 2008 Goldman Sachs Report June 21, 2008 2008-10-20 16:48:01 361.18 Kb

Goldman Sachs' Bank Holding Company Fundamental Valuation and Forensic Analysis - Professional Goldman Sachs' Bank Holding Company Fundamental Valuation and Forensic Analysis - Professional 2008-12-18 10:12:37 267.49 Kb

Goldman Sachs' Bank Holding Company Fundamental Valuation and Forensic Analysis - Retail Goldman Sachs' Bank Holding Company Fundamental Valuation and Forensic Analysis - Retail 2008-10-20 15:45:05 348.99 Kb

GS ABS Inventory GS ABS Inventory 2008-02-25 06:48:56 1.22 Mb

 

 MAC

pdf  Macerich Forensic Valuation - Retail 2009-02-23 15:15:38 192.71 Kb

pdf  Macerich Forensic Valuation - Professional 2009-02-23 12:00:00 344.92 Kb

pdf  Macerich Sensitivity Analyis - Pro 2008-11-29 13:34:42 344.92 Kb

pdf  Macerich Statistics Spreadsheet - Pro 2008-11-07 12:26:19 356.00 Kb

spreadsheet  Macerich Summary 2008-10-09 09:27:51 910.94 Kb

 STI

Sun Trust Bank Report Sun Trust Bank Report 2008-08-30 06:39:22 391.89 Kb

pdf SIVB Forensic Analysis Retail 2008-12-19 12:41:48 266.05 Kb

spreadsheet  Sun Trust Bank Stress Test Scenario Analysis – Government Simulation 2009-04-30 03:43:18 665.82 Kb

pdf  Sun Trust Banks Simulated Government Stress Test 2009-05-05 11:37:13 1016.17 Kb

 JPM

[Note: we have never performed a full forensic analysis of JPM, although there may be one coming] pdf  JP Morgan Forensic Highlights 2009-01-06 19:18:08 133.34 Kb

pdf  JP Morgan Q408 Quarterly opinion with sample trades - Professional & Institutional 2009-01-22 08:48:02 211.69 Kb

pdf  JP Morgan Q408 quarterly valuation opinion - Retail 2009-01-22 08:49:26 79.24 Kb

 USG

pdf  USG Intelligence Note 2008-12-15 07:27:40 141.07 Kb

spreadsheet  USG Financial Model Pro 2008-10-05 09:06:12 908.78 Kb

 SFD

pdf  SFD_Retail Report_Final_240908 2008-09-25 01:38:21 185.94 Kb

pdf  SFD_Pro Report_Final_240908 2008-10-07 01:39:23 286.98 Kb

 AXP

spreadsheet  AXP Consolidated final 2008-08-30 06:28:15 437.96 Kb

 HOT

pdf  Starwood Hotels (HOT) Intelligence Note_072009 - 2009-07-22 03:45:18 927.84 Kb

pdf  HOT Report 290709 Retail 2009-08-03 01:52:38 420.81 Kb

pdf  HOT Report_290709 Pro 2009-08-03 01:53:54 635.54 Kb

FRO

pdf  Frontline Investment Summary - Retail 2008-12-18 14:13:16 363.84 Kb

pdf  Frontline investment highlights - Pro 2008-12-18 14:16:07 473.47 Kb

pdf  FRO Oil Price Arbitrage Addendum 2009-01-07 09:55:07 1.31 Mb

LRN

pdf  K12 Forensic Analysis (ticker:LRN) 2009-07-20 07:54:32 619.70 Kb

BBV

pdf  Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) Professional Forensic Analysis 2009-02-23 09:05:09 439.80 Kb