Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:87156 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:81086 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:80925 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:85398 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:81900 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:84088 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:55145 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:83338 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:83083 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:82975 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:89223 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:86945 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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HOT's 2Q09 results analysis

Starwood Hotels reported a tough 2Q09 with revenues (excl other revenues from franchised and managed properties which are reimbursements of costs incurred on behalf of managed hotel properties and franchisees) declining 31.5% (y-o-y) to $707 mn in 2Q09 from $1,032 mn in 2Q08. Steep declines in ADR and occupancy are pushing down the REVPAR at owned hotels, resulting in 36.5% (y-o-y) decline in revenues from owned, leased and consolidated joint venture hotels to $394 mn in 2Q09 from $620 mn in 2Q08. REVPAR for comparable owned hotels worldwide declined 32.6% (y-o-y) with hotels in North America witnessing a decline of 31.4% and international hotels recording 34.8% decline. Starwood's management and franchise fees declined 14.2% (y-o-y) to $187 mn in 2Q09 from $218 mn in 2Q08 as the revenues at the managed and franchised hotels plunge due to double digit decline in REVPAR at the managed and franchised hotels. REVPAR for the comparable systemwide hotels, which include worldwide owned, managed and franchised hotels, declined 25.9% with sharp declines recorded across all geographies. Further, the revenues from vacation ownership declined 35.1 %( y-o-y) to $126 mn in 2Q09 from $194 mn in 2Q08.

Sharp decline in revenues are outpacing decline in costs resulting in squeeze in margins. Gross margin of the owned hotels declined to 16.5% in 2Q09 from 26.8% in 2Q08. In spite of substantial cut in SG&A expenses, which dropped 30.4% (y-o-y), the Company's operating margin contracted significantly to 8.3% in 2Q09 from 12.7% in 2Q08. Consequently, the decline in operating income was much steeper and the operating income declined 49.7% (y-o-y) to $100 mn in 2Q09 from $199 mn in 2Q08.

 However, the bottom line was inflated due to inclusion of special items which included $120 mn benefit for a tax incentive program in Italy, partially offset by net impairment charges (after tax) of $26 mn and restructuring charges (after tax) of $4 mn. Excluding these special items, the net profit declined 58.1% (y-o-y) to $44 mn in 2Q09 from $105 mn in 2Q08. EPS (excluding special items) was $0.24 in 2Q09, against $0.56 in 2Q09.

Comparison of the actual with our estimates

Starwood performed much worse than we expected with the actual revenues (excl other revenues from franchised and managed properties) in 2Q09 about 9.6% lower than our estimates. Further, owing to compression in margins, the operating income was 25.1% lower at $100 mn against our estimates of $134 mn. Excluding the special items totaling $90 mn, the net income was 21% lower at $44 mn against our estimates of $56 mn. EPS (excl special items) was $0.24 against our estimates of $0.31.

For 3Q09, the company is expecting much lower EBITDA and EPS than our estimates. The Company expects EBITDA within the range of $165-$175 mn and EPS within the range of $0.06-$0.10 for 3Q09 against our estimate of $199 mn of EBITDA and EPS of $0.27.

However, the Company's full year 2009 guidance for EBITDA of $750 mn is in line with our estimates of $744 mn.

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