Using Veritas to Construct the "Per…

29-04-2017 Hits:87194 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Using Veritas to Construct the "Perfect" Digital Investment Portfolio" & How to Value "Hard to Value" tokens, Pt 1

The golden grail of investing is to find that investable asset that provides the greatest reward with the least risk. Alas, despite how commonsensical that precept seems to be, many...

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The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary …

15-04-2017 Hits:81115 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Veritas 2017 Token Offering Summary Available For Download and Sharing

The Veritas Offering Summary is now available for download, which packs all the information about Veritas in a single page. A step by step guide to purchasing Veritas can be downloaded here.

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What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hit…

10-04-2017 Hits:80956 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What Happens When the Fund Fee Fight Hits the Blockchain

A hedge fund recently made news by securitizing its LP units as Ethereum-based tokens and selling them as tradeable (thereby liquid) assets. This brings technology to the VC industry that...

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Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in t…

07-04-2017 Hits:85428 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Veritaseum: The ICO That's Ushering in the Era of P2P Capital Markets

Veritaseum is in the process of building peer-to-peer capital markets that enable financial and value market participants to deal directly with each other on a counterparty risk-free basis in lieu...

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This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas…

03-04-2017 Hits:81928 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Is Ground Zero for the 2017 Veritas Offering. Are You Ready to Get Your Key to the P2P Capital Markets?

This is the link to the Veritas Crowdsale landing page. Here is where you will be able to buy the Veritas ICO when it is launched in mid-April. Below, please...

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What is the Value Proposition For Verita…

01-04-2017 Hits:84116 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

What is the Value Proposition For Veritas, Veritaseum's Software Token?

 A YouTube commenter asked a very good question that we will like to take some time to answer. The question was, verbatim: I've watched your video and gone through the slides. The exchange...

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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relat…

28-03-2017 Hits:55177 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...

CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including...

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Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As …

28-03-2017 Hits:83373 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Bloomberg Chimes In With My Warnings As Landlords Offer First Time Ever Concessions to Retail Renters

Over the last quarter I've been warning about the significant weakness in retailers and the retail real estate that most occupy (links supplied below). Now, Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Landlords Are Offering...

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Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Comp…

27-03-2017 Hits:83112 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Our Apple Analysis This Week - This Company Is Not What Most Think It IS

We will releasing our Apple forensic analysis and valuation this week for subscribers (click here to subscribe - lowest tier is the same as a Netflix subscription). As can be...

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The Country's First Newly Elected Lame D…

27-03-2017 Hits:83004 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Country's First Newly Elected Lame Duck President Will Cause Massive Reversal Of Speculative Gains

Note: Subscribers should reference  the paywall material here for stocks that should give a good risk/reward scenario for bearish trades. The Trump administration's legislative outlook is effectively a political desert, with...

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Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactl…

22-03-2017 Hits:89256 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

Sears Finally Throws In The Towel Exactly When I Predicted "has ‘substantial doubt’ about its future"

My prediction of Sears collapsing once interest rates started ticking upwards was absolutely on point.

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The Transformation of Television in Amer…

21-03-2017 Hits:86977 BoomBustBlog Reggie Middleton

The Transformation of Television in America and Worldwide

TV has changed more in the past 10 years than it has since it's inception nearly 100 years ago This change is profound, and the primary benefactors look and act...

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Additional Op-Ed from the Blog community. The usual disclaimers apply in that this is a 3rd party's opinion for which I do not warranty or necessarily endorse. This submissionis 5 days old, and was notably prescient. I apologize for the delay in getting it out to you. Those of you who have followed me for a while know that I am a fundamentals guy, and am not very big on technical analysis (outside of basic momentum and relative strength movements) but I do recognize the value of following trends when the markets occasionally break away from the fundamentals, as they have over the last quarter.

 

First Chart: S&P 500 - Hourly Chart (March 5, 2009 - June 11, 2009)

Clck any of the charts below to enlarge

june_11th_-_sp500__annotated.jpg
This chart of the S&P 500 breaks down the up move from the March 9th lows to yesterday's potential breakout failure.  There is an initial strong bull move that lasts 2months, March and April, followed by consolidation in a 50 point range during May trading. June 1st there is small breakout  of the May base, followed by more consolidating action. June 11th the S&P tries to breakout of its June base, however there is negative divergence (-D) not only highlighted technically by the RSI, but also seen in the financials (notably regionals, mortgage finance and insurance) that did not rally with the market in June, resulting in a potential breakout failure.

It's important to take note of pattern failures as they usually lead to counter-trend moves, with examples provided on April 17th and May 8th of this year. With the overall uptrend (blue trendline) of this March 9th bounce, so close in proximity to yesterday's potential breakout failure... a small-countertrend move could ignite a much larger reaction if it caused a break of the overall trend.  Over the last few weeks the rally has looked tired with technical divergences and many of the financial names stalling as the market moved higher in late May and early June.  So for me at this point, its about trying to find calculated opportunities to enter the market and add to positions from the short side, technical divergences and pattern failures provide those low risk opportunities.

Second Chart: S&P 500 - 15 Min Chart (May 17, 2009 - June 11, 2009)

Clck any of the charts to enlarge

june_11th_-_sp500_15min__annotated.jpg
In general I try to stay away from using time frames smaller than 60mins to analyze the market. However, when you have your idea in place, 15min and 30min charts can be great for timing if you are very specific about what you are looking to accomplish. Failed patterns represent the ideal trade scenarios for counter-trend moves. Patterns in general create expectations and can generate momentum for traders, especially when those expectations appear to be met. However those expectations are suddenly dashed, it takes that initial momentum and adds its own momentum all in the opposite direction. So failed patterns provide timing, as a failed long pattern can become a great short entry. Also it provides a catalyst or ignition for someone to act at the right time with momentum on their side. Best of all it provides low risk/high reward scenarios.

On June 11th, market tries to breakout of its base around the 951 area in the S&P, it trades higher up to 957 but eventually fails and trades lower thru 951 again. The 1st chart illustrates the overall trend and I explain why a failed pattern in this area could be of significance. With that in mind, once the S&P trades back thru 951, it provides a great potential short entry down to 944.  Even if you miss the short opportunity at 950 and enter on the close of the day around 945, if you use the intraday high 957 as your stop for the short entry... you are only risking 13points (1.37%) on the S&P to catch a potentially much larger reaction and break of the intermediate bull trend.  If it doesn't work, I get stopped out and look for another entry... as long as the risk/reward is this heavily in my favor, this type of failed pattern trade to establish a larger macro position is something I will always consider .

Sidenote:
Goldman Sach topped out in Q4 2007 around $250/share, then bottomed out in Q4 2008 around $47/share... the 50% retracement level (a big resistance level for traders and technical analysts is about 151. It has not been able to get above 150 and looks to be breaking its up trend... chart to follow this weekend.